Zubaria twin budget quagmire deepens distrust

Zubaria twin budget quagmire deepens distrust in government’s fiscal planning, sparking outrage across sectors and calls for reform.

A Nation in Budgetary Limbo

In the heart of West Africa, the fictional Republic of Zubaria is facing an unprecedented fiscal conundrum two national budgets running simultaneously,

neither fully implemented, both causing widespread institutional fatigue and public outrage.

With the 2024 capital budget recently extended for the second time now slated to expire on December 31, 2025 while the 2025 budget remains dormant seven months into the year,

Zubarians are asking one haunting question: Who is really in charge of the national purse?

From public school contractors waiting for long-overdue payments to civil servants owed duty allowances since January, the story is the same paralysis.

The Budget That Wouldn’t End

It began with optimism. In late 2023, President Adamu Garba’s administration unveiled a ₦16.4 trillion budget titled “Rebuild Zubaria.”

The plan was ambitious: over 4,000 capital projects ranging from road rehabilitation to solar electrification of rural clinics.

But by December 2024, only 41% of these projects had seen partial disbursement.

Facing mounting pressure, the National Assembly led by Speaker Fola-Ade Dantata and Senate President Musa Kabo granted an initial six-month extension to June 30, 2025.

That extension has now doubled, with a new deadline of December 31, 2025, effectively stretching a one-year plan across two full calendar years.

But the twist? The 2025 national budget was already passed and signed into law in January yet not a single kobo has been disbursed from it.

Ministries in Paralysis

At the Ministry of Rural Infrastructure in Dandogo District, Engineer Amina Tanimu frowns at a stack of stalled project files.

“Our entire Q1 and Q2 activities are still being funded by leftover capital from 2024,” she said, requesting anonymity.

“We have contractors who completed solar installations in January who still haven’t been paid. Even our own field staff have been financing duty travel from personal loans.”

The ministry’s spokesperson, while declining to comment on record, confirmed that most departments have not received 2025 budget ceilings due to “pending closure of 2024 capital accounts.”

A Recipe for Mismanagement

Experts have begun sounding alarms about the risks of overlapping fiscal cycles.

“This is administrative chaos masquerading as flexibility,” said Dr. Kemi Bature, a public finance lecturer at Zubaria State University.

“Running twin budgets disrupts accountability, allows for double dipping in procurement, and reduces visibility for auditors.”

She added that capital budget extensions are only justifiable in states of emergency like post-flood rebuilding or wartime adjustments.

“Zubaria is not at war. So why are we legislating disorganization?”

Inflation and Investor Doubt Loom

The economic effects are already being felt. Zubaria’s year-on-year inflation, currently at 29.3%, is projected to climb another two points if both budgets continue concurrently.

“We now have fiscal expansion without corresponding productivity,” said Paul Edeh, managing partner at CedarMacro Advisory.

“What that means is: money is circulating through unpaid contracts and floating liabilities, but nothing tangible is being added to GDP.”

Worse still, foreign investors are pulling back from Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), citing erratic budget cycles and unreliable disbursement timelines.

Twin Budgets, Twin Blame

The blame game is alive and well in Biranika, Zubaria’s capital. At the National Assembly, lawmakers insist they were merely responding to executive requests.

Senator Habibu Kalamba, Chair of the Appropriations Committee, defended the extension. “What’s better? Abandoning half-finished projects or giving them the legal and fiscal room to be completed?”

But critics argue that Zubaria is entering a cycle of budgetary rollover that weakens the very institution of annual planning.

“We’ve normalized what should be a red flag,” lamented Ifeoma Ogundipe, policy analyst at the Centre for Civic Metrics.

“The legislature should be the last line of defense, not a rubber stamp for incompetence.”

Ghost Projects and Silent Agencies

Civil society groups have flagged another emerging risk ghost projects.

According to a recent report by the Zubaria Budget Watch Coalition (ZBWC), at least 19 road projects in the 2024 budget were reallocated under 2025 without public disclosure.

“Without distinct closure of 2024 accounts, there’s room for overlap, double claims, and even ghost mobilizations,” warned Bello Dan-Musa, the group’s legal counsel.

Even more troubling, several agencies have reportedly avoided submitting quarterly implementation reports for 2025, citing confusion over which budget code to use.

Inside the President’s Strategy

Despite the uproar, insiders at the Presidency argue that the extensions are a tactical necessity.

“The President wants to ensure that legacy infrastructure projects especially under the North-South Economic Corridor are not abandoned midway,”

said Presidential Budget Liaison Officer, Dr. Ladi Mogaji. “That requires flexibility.”

Dr. Mogaji also hinted that the delayed activation of the 2025 budget was a deliberate cost-containment strategy.

“We cannot spend what we haven’t earned. Delaying 2025 roll-out buys us time to meet Q3 revenue targets.”

Business Sector: Split Reactions

Within the organized private sector, opinions remain divided.

Mikail Odeyemi, Vice President of the Zubaria Chamber of Commerce, said the situation has introduced uncertainty in contract pricing and timelines.

“We can’t plan when the government is stuck between budgets.”

On the other hand, Ngozi Ubah, an executive at NkoReal Infrastructure, sees opportunity.

“For firms with backlogs from 2024, this extension offers a second chance to push for payment. It’s not ideal, but we’ll take it.”

Political Fallout?

Opposition parties have seized the moment.

The Progressive Unity Party (PUP), in a press statement, accused the Garba administration of “mortgaging Zubaria’s fiscal sanity for political optics.”

Senator Rabi Abdullahi, PUP’s minority whip, warned that continued extensions may violate the Fiscal Accountability Act of 2017, which mandates budget closure within 18 months of passage.

“The 2024 budget was passed in January 2024. Extending it to December 2025 breaches that legal threshold.”

What Comes Next?

A special panel on Fiscal Harmonization is expected to convene in August to recommend reforms.

Meanwhile, the Office of the Auditor-General has quietly launched a compliance review of both budget cycles.

Among the panel’s expected proposals:

A single-year closure clause for all future budgets,

Mandatory publication of capital disbursement updates every quarter,

Centralized e-procurement logs to flag duplications across budget years.

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A Crisis of Trust

Zubaria’s budgetary standoff is more than a fiscal problem it is a governance dilemma.

With mounting evidence of administrative overreach, ghost projects, delayed disbursement, and inflationary pressure, the country is at a crossroads.

In the words of Dr. Bature: “A budget is more than numbers. It’s a contract between the state and its citizens. When that contract is broken, trust unravels.”

Until Zubaria can return to timely, transparent budgeting, that unraveling may continue with consequences reaching far beyond unpaid invoices.