Nigeria’s economy is taking a serious hit as a result of unstable global oil prices and inconsistent tariff policies from former U.S. President Donald Trump, according to Farouk Ahmed, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
Speaking during a press briefing at the Aso Villa in Abuja, Ahmed said the recent volatility in global oil markets—partly driven by Trump’s unpredictable trade moves—has had damaging effects on Nigeria’s revenue.
Although falling petroleum prices may seem like good news for consumers, they spell trouble for a nation that heavily depends on oil exports to fund its economy.
Citing a sharp single-day drop in oil prices from $73 to $60 per barrel, Ahmed warned that such sudden changes drastically reduce Nigeria’s income from oil, which continues to be the country’s economic backbone. “We may enjoy lower fuel costs as consumers, but nationally, we suffer because our revenue shrinks too,” he explained.
Ahmed also highlighted internal challenges like pipeline vandalism and reduced crude oil production, further compounding the economic pressure. He stressed that the unpredictability of Trump’s trade tariffs—often reversed or amended with little warning—has made global oil trading a gamble.
Recent reports from OPEC show that Nigeria’s crude oil production has declined to around 1.4 million barrels per day. If prices drop by just $10 per barrel, the impact on the national reserve and the naira’s strength could be devastating.
Adding to the concern, Ahmed disclosed that petrol imports have sharply fallen—from 44.6 million litres daily in August 2024 to just 14.7 million litres as of April 13, 2025.
On the upside, local production has risen by over 670%, largely due to the phased reopening of the Port Harcourt Refinery and increased output from modular refineries.
Despite this progress, Nigeria’s total supply of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) only surpassed the 50 million litres per day benchmark twice—once in November and again in February. Figures for March and early April have remained below target.
Ahmed also broke down the roles of key players in the supply chain. Oil Marketing Companies now provide up to 60% of daily petrol needs, while Dangote Refinery supplies about two-fifths. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), on the other hand, has seen its contribution fall to zero since February 2025.
Addressing Nigeria’s refining capacity, Ahmed noted that 10 plants—six private and four public—are currently licensed to refine a combined 1.12 million barrels per day. Of that, private refineries account for 679,500 barrels, with the Dangote Refinery handling 650,000 barrels alone.
As Nigeria navigates this challenging economic climate, the NMDPRA boss called on stakeholders to prepare for continued uncertainty in the global oil sector and to adopt strategic measures that can stabilize the country’s energy economy.
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