Nigeria's Food Inflation Divide Deepens Crisis

Nigeria’s food inflation divide widens sharply as Borno, Bayelsa, and Taraba face severe price surges despite national inflation easing in May 2025.

Introduction: Nigeria Food Inflation Divide Deepens Crisis

Despite encouraging national inflation figures for May 2025, the lived experience across Nigeria tells a different story.

A new report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals a worrying Nigeria food inflation divide, with Borno, Bayelsa, and Taraba states facing extreme food price surges while other regions enjoy modest relief.

While the headline inflation rate eased for the second consecutive month to 22.97%, the food inflation rate in Borno skyrocketed to 64.36% year-on-year,

indicating that the worst-hit states are spiraling into a deepening crisis.

Behind these figures lies a tale of economic inequality, security breakdowns, and social hardship, demanding urgent attention beyond macroeconomic reports.

Regional Disparity Behind the National Average

Nigeria’s inflation dynamics are no longer a uniform narrative. The NBS’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2025 highlights regional disparities that are too stark to ignore.

According to the report:

Borno recorded the highest food inflation rate at 64.36% year-on-year.

Bayelsa followed with 39.85%.

Taraba posted 38.58%.

By contrast, Katsina (6.90%), Rivers (9.18%), and Kwara (11.31%) saw the slowest increases.

This wide gap reveals a deeply uneven inflation recovery where southern and middle-belt states benefit from relative stability,

while the northeastern and Niger Delta zones remain trapped in crisis.

Insecurity and Displacement Fueling Borno’s Crisis

In Borno, the high food inflation rate is directly linked to over a decade of conflict.

With thousands of farming households displaced by insurgency, the region has become reliant on food transported from afar, inflating costs through added logistics, fuel, and risk premiums.

Malam Yusuf Ibrahim, a food trader in Maiduguri, explained how his business has changed:

“We used to get maize from local farms. Now, we bring it from Jos or even Kano. Transport costs alone have tripled. People living on low incomes simply can’t keep up with the prices anymore.”

The insecurity has pushed many off their farmlands, leaving crops to perish and markets empty.

However, the resulting scarcity is not just pushing up prices it is threatening food security and regional stability.

Floods and Logistics Disrupt Bayelsa’s Supply Chain

In Bayelsa, the causes are different but equally damaging. Recurrent flooding, particularly during the last planting season, has disrupted food production.

The state’s swampy terrain and limited transport infrastructure make food logistics expensive.

Many staple items are now sourced from neighboring states, with vendors citing rising transportation and preservation costs.

A Yenagoa-based food seller, Madam Esther Akinbobola, shared her struggle:

“The cost of getting yams from Benue and tomatoes from Plateau is unbearable. Before, I’d spend ₦15,000 on a delivery. Now, it’s ₦40,000 or more.”

Taraba’s Crisis: Between Conflict and Neglect

Taraba, although rich in arable land, has not been spared.

Ethnic clashes, farmer-herder tensions, and poor rural infrastructure have all contributed to limited market access and post-harvest losses.

Despite high production potential, most of the food doesn’t make it to markets or urban centers, creating localized scarcity.

A development consultant in Jalingo, Dr. Paul Gambo, attributes the inflation to years of underinvestment:

“Taraba is not just suffering from inflation. It’s suffering from neglect. Poor roads, zero investment in storage these problems have compounded inflation.”

The National Picture: Slight Relief, But Misleading

While these three states face escalating hardship, the overall national inflation rate declined from 23.71% in April to 22.97% in May, as per NBS data.

Similarly, the food inflation index dipped slightly from 21.26% in April to 21.14% in May.

On the surface, this suggests progress but a deeper analysis reveals that these numbers are heavily influenced by a recent change in the statistical base year,

which lowered comparisons from the previous year.

On a month-to-month basis, food inflation rose by 2.19%, compared to 2.06% in April reflecting real-time price increases, particularly for items like:

Yam tubers
Cassava flour
Maize flour
Sweet potatoes
Fresh pepper

People vs. Policy: Disconnected Realities

For most Nigerians, the idea that inflation is “easing” does not match their daily experiences.

In rural and urban markets alike, prices remain high, and income growth is nonexistent.

According to food analyst Ngozi Emefiele, the gap between policy metrics and public reality is growing.

“Even when the numbers improve slightly, people feel worse off. Inflation metrics don’t capture how food stress erodes daily life, especially in rural areas.”

Households Struggling Across the Nation

In the heart of Taraba, the Garba family a household of six has had to adjust their meals.

Once reliant on yams and tomatoes, they now eat rice or boiled cassava with salt.

In Bayelsa, school feeding programs have stalled due to budget strain.

A teacher in Southern Ijaw LGA confirmed that many children now arrive at school hungry and too tired to concentrate.

“When food prices rise, children suffer first,” she said. “We see it in their health and learning.”

Rethinking Inflation Management: Not One Size Fits All

The current national inflation management strategy centers around monetary tightening, interest rate hikes, and base-year recalibrations.

However, experts argue that these measures fail to address regional inflation disparities.

Professor Sadiq Umar, an economist at the University of Jos, insists on regionalized inflation tracking:

“You can’t manage Nigeria’s economy as a single entity anymore. Borno’s inflation crisis requires humanitarian intervention, not monetary policy.”

Proposed Solutions: Tackling the Divide

To address the Nigeria food inflation divide, stakeholders suggest a mix of short- and long-term interventions:

1. Localized Agricultural Investment: Prioritize support for farmers in insecure and flood-prone regions.

2. Food Transport Subsidies: Offset logistics costs for transporting food from surplus to deficit states.

3. Improved Rural Infrastructure: Repair roads, build silos, and strengthen farm-to-market routes.

4. Security for Farmers: Deploy agro-rangers and peacekeeping forces to protect agricultural zones.

5. Data Transparency: Disaggregate inflation reports by conflict impact to drive targeted policy.

The Cost of Inaction: From Numbers to Nutrition

If unchecked, the Nigeria food inflation divide will not only deepen poverty it will weaken national unity.

The continued disparity in access to food between regions could stoke resentment, migration, and unrest, particularly among young, unemployed populations in northern states.

Food inflation is not just an economic concern it is a social justice issue, a matter of survival, and a challenge to national resilience.

Read Also:

Building a More Inclusive Economic Recovery

The latest NBS data may signal a step forward for macroeconomic stability, but beneath the surface lies a silent crisis.

Moreover, the Nigeria food inflation divide is real, widening, and rooted in structural inequalities that numbers alone cannot fix.

To bridge this divide, Nigeria must shift from viewing inflation as a statistical target to treating it as a human experience one that demands compassion,

targeted investment, and inclusive growth.