ECOWAS and the Alliance of Sahel States: A Regional Dilemma
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has long been a pillar of regional integration in Africa, promoting economic cooperation, trade facilitation, and monetary policy harmonization.
However, the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger has thrown a wrench into ECOWAS’s ambitions.
A Fractured Bloc
Until September 2023, ECOWAS had 15 member states. However, following military coups and subsequent ECOWAS sanctions, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger announced their withdrawal, officially leaving in January 2025.
Their exit threatens key ECOWAS initiatives such as the proposed single currency (ECO) and the ECOWAS Monetary Cooperation Programme (EMCP), which aimed to stabilize exchange rates and attract investments.
AES, formed under the Liptako-Gourma Charter, signals a shift in regional alliances.
These three countries, previously part of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), could now seek alternative economic partnerships, potentially undermining ECOWAS’s vision of economic unity.
Challenges and Economic Shifts
The split presents a significant economic and geopolitical challenge.
ECOWAS, which played a key role in trade agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) and the EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EU-EPA), now faces an internal divide.
If AES states pursue new trade policies, supply chains, particularly in agriculture and energy, could suffer. Coastal ECOWAS nations depend on AES for livestock, while the Sahel nations import refined petroleum and manufactured goods from ECOWAS.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) could also take a hit. ECOWAS’s collective strength has been a major attraction for investors, and with its market size shrinking, economic disparities may widen.
Additionally, AES’s increasing ties with Russia and China could reshape regional influence, challenging ECOWAS’s traditionally strong relations with the European Union.
Infrastructure and Security Concerns
Regional projects like the Lagos–Abidjan Corridor, Dakar–Bamako railway, and Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline now face uncertainty.
If AES prioritizes independent economic strategies, logistical barriers, tariffs, and delays could hinder progress. The West African Power Pool (WAPP), aimed at integrating electricity supply across the region, may also fragment.
Security concerns remain a driving factor in AES’s formation, given the Sahel’s battle against terrorism and instability.
If ECOWAS fails to address these issues, further fragmentation could occur, making regional security cooperation more challenging.
The Way Forward for ECOWAS
To remain relevant, ECOWAS must:
- Strengthen economic ties among remaining members and fast-track key infrastructure projects.
- Maintain open diplomatic channels with AES while ensuring regional trade continuity.
- Reassure investors by implementing clear economic policies and exploring alternative intra-ECOWAS trade routes.
- Reinforce regional security cooperation to prevent further instability.
Looking Ahead
The formation of AES marks a turning point in West African geopolitics. While ECOWAS remains committed to regional unity, the rise of a rival bloc could reshape trade partnerships, investment flows, and security strategies.
How ECOWAS navigates this new landscape will determine its influence and future role in Africa’s economic development.
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