China’s population fell for the third consecutive year in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, marking a continued decline after more than six decades of growth.
The population now stands at 1.408 billion, down slightly from 1.410 billion in 2023, further emphasizing the challenges posed by an ageing population and persistently low birth rates.
Once the most populous nation globally, China lost this title to India in 2023. The Chinese government has since introduced measures like subsidies and pro-fertility campaigns to counteract the downward trend, but results remain limited.
A Demographic Shift Amid Economic Struggles
China’s declining birth rates are attributed to the high cost of living, the growing number of women pursuing higher education, and their increased participation in the workforce.
Despite ending the strict “one-child policy” in 2016 and allowing couples to have three children from 2021, these changes haven’t reversed the population decrease.
According to Yun Zhou, a sociologist at the University of Michigan, young people in China face bleak economic prospects and entrenched gender discrimination in the labor market, further dampening birth rates.
The Aging Population Crisis
By 2035, nearly one-third of China’s population is expected to be aged 60 or older, posing significant challenges for the economy and social support systems. In 2024, the population aged 60 and above reached 310.31 million, a noticeable increase from 297 million in 2023.
While the birth rate slightly improved to 6.77 per 1,000 people, experts like Zhao Litao from the National University of Singapore believe this uptick is temporary.
Factors like the decline in the population of childbearing-age women and ongoing demographic trends suggest that population contraction and ageing will persist.
Policy Adjustments to Tackle the Crisis
To address the challenges, the Chinese government announced gradual changes to the statutory retirement age starting January 2025.
Initially set decades ago during a period of scarcity, the retirement age reforms aim to alleviate pressure on the pension and public health systems.
Economist He Yafu highlighted that some of the recent births are linked to delayed childbirth during the COVID-19 pandemic and an increase in marriages during the auspicious Year of the Dragon in 2024.
However, without strong pro-natalist policies, the population’s decline is unlikely to change.
As the world’s second-largest economy, China now faces slowing growth and the challenges of a fast-ageing population, which could strain public systems for years to come.
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