As Nigerians step into 2025, there’s an undeniable sense of anticipation surrounding the upcoming 2027 general elections.
With political activity already picking up pace, the focus is on the three main opposition figures: Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
Their personal ambitions and differing strategies to unseat Bola Tinubu, the current president, could very well dictate the political landscape leading into 2027.
Reflecting on the 2023 presidential election, where Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) triumphed, opposition leaders seem to have learned from their collective defeat.
Already, discussions about new political alignments and strategies are underway as they attempt to stage a comeback for the 2027 polls.
Salihu Lukman, former National Vice Chairman of the APC, who is closely aligned with former Kaduna State Governor Ahmed El-Rufai, confirmed this shift.
Lukman remarked that while opposition leaders, including disgruntled members from the APC, are pushing for an alternative platform, Nigerian politicians’ tendency to prioritize personal ambitions over genuine political competition remains a significant challenge.
He noted, “Politicians must rise above self-interest and allow for a competitive political environment, where true leaders can emerge to serve Nigeria’s interests.”
Despite the increasing chatter about realignment, the pressing question remains: Can any of the leading opposition parties go it alone in 2027?
The PDP’s road to 2027 is clouded by both internal conflict and external competition. Once a dominant force in Nigerian politics, having won every presidential election from 1999 to 2011, the PDP is now grappling with the fallout from its 2015 loss to the APC and a disappointing performance in 2023.
In the 2023 elections, Atiku Abubakar’s candidacy received 29.1% of the vote, losing to Tinubu’s 36.61%. While some analysts argue that the PDP still holds considerable sway, the party’s internal strife could undermine its chances in 2027.
Atiku’s unyielding ambition to become president means he faces competition within the party, notably from Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde.
However, the PDP’s fate could also be influenced by figures like Nyesom Wike, who, while still a prominent figure in the party, has expressed support for Tinubu’s re-election.
This dual allegiance makes the party’s unity, crucial for 2027, even more uncertain.
Despite these challenges, Kola Ologbondiyan, a former APC spokesperson, remains confident in the PDP’s potential, emphasizing its strong grassroots support and wealth of experienced politicians. Still, Ologbondiyan acknowledges the uphill battle that lies ahead for the party.
The LP is no stranger to internal turmoil. Despite having gained traction in the 2023 elections, the party is struggling with a leadership crisis, particularly surrounding Julius Abure’s leadership of the National Working Committee.
Key figures like Peter Obi and Governor Alex Otti have rejected Abure’s leadership, sparking conversations about the possibility of seeking alternative platforms.
However, the LP’s National Publicity Secretary, Obiora Ifoh, has expressed optimism about the party’s future, despite setbacks like defections. He remains hopeful that the LP will not only recover but thrive in the coming elections.
Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso’s NNPP, while holding some influence, faces significant challenges in keeping the party intact.
Though the NNPP has one governor and several elected members in the House of Representatives and Kano State Assembly, defections to the ruling APC loom large.
Recently, Kwankwaso has entertained discussions about a potential alliance with Peter Obi, suggesting that he could even serve as Obi’s running mate.
This proposal marks an interesting turn of events, given their prior talks about a merger that never came to fruition. Both candidates boast substantial followings, with Obi placing third in the 2023 race with over 6 million votes, and Kwankwaso securing fourth with nearly 1.5 million votes.
Dr. Joseph Anuga, a political scientist based in Jos, believes that a merger between Kwankwaso and Obi could bolster their chances in 2027, but he warns that Nigerian politics remains unpredictable.
The political climate in 2027 may differ vastly from that of 2023, making it impossible to predict the outcome with certainty.
Obi, for his part, is keen to downplay any speculation about alliances or mergers, focusing instead on the need for national unity.
While he acknowledges that building a strong political platform is essential, he remains reluctant to engage fully in the 2027 debate.
Kwankwaso has also denied rumors of a power-sharing agreement between the opposition leaders, stressing that such discussions are unfounded and have no basis in reality.
Despite the opposition’s efforts, Tinubu and the APC are well-positioned to retain power in 2027. Tinubu’s mastery of political strategy, coupled with the advantages of incumbency, gives the ruling party an edge.
Loyalists of the APC, including influential figures such as former governors like David Umahi, Nyesom Wike, and Abdullahi Ganduje, have been rewarded with ministerial positions, ensuring continued support in the years leading up to the next election.
With the APC controlling both chambers of the National Assembly and key state institutions, it’s clear that the ruling party will be working hard to maintain its hold on power, even as the opposition seeks to regroup and realign.
As 2025 unfolds, it’s evident that the road to 2027 will be paved with political maneuvering, realignments, and fierce competition.
While opposition parties have begun to position themselves for a stronger showing, their success will hinge on overcoming internal divisions and external challenges.
With Tinubu’s APC holding the reins, the fight for 2027 is set to be a thrilling political spectacle.
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